DETERMINING THE PRESENCE OF A STOCHASTIC PROCESS IN THE TIME SERIES OF PRODUCTS OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF UKRAINE

Abstract

Determining the future price of any product or service is a key factor in the activities of any enterprise, because it allows it to optimize operating and financial activities and make better use of available resources. This is especially important for companies operating in the agricultural sector of the economy, because they are characterized by cyclicality and uneven operating cycles. Thus, knowledge of the future price of products and the availability of a derivative allows them to obtain additional profits, which is important for their competitiveness. It should be noted that for most sectors of the economy, the future price is not known in advance, so there is a need to predict it.

The development of hardware and software over the past 20 years has allowed scientists to use the latest forecasting methods and models. Using only the historical data of the prices` fluctuations, allow you to get an idea of their future state. However, there is a significant problem that in many cases makes it impossible to use only the past data. This problem is the presence of stochastic processes in the time series. Determining the presence of a stochastic process in the time series is the first step in building prediction systems.

Determining the presence of stochastic processes in the time series of major Ukrainian agricultural products is an important step that will allow Ukrainian enterprises to be more competitive. This is especially important because the agricultural sector is key to Ukraine's national security, as it is one of the largest sectors in Ukraine and is key in its trade activity.